Let’s begin — Page 10, Lesson 16

Let’s begin. I want to walk you through the opening of the Basic Concepts chapter, starting with aircraft accident statistics. This is where we lay the foundation for why human performance matters so much in aviation. Statistics play a fundamental role in accident analysis. The idea is simple: only by producing comprehensive and wide-ranging statistics can we establish the root cause of accidents. The Safety Data Department of the CAA — that’s the Civil Aviation Authority — regularly distributes several publications in this field. Three of them are Aviation Safety Review, Data Plus, and Global Accident Review. Now, to put aviation safety in perspective: when compared with other forms of transportation, aviation has the best safety record. To give you a concrete comparison, the risk of death per person per year in a car accident is 1 in 10,000 in the UK and 1 in 4,000 in the USA. That’s the baseline we’re beating. Looking at the fatal accident rate over the last 10 years, it’s approximately 1 per 1.2 million flights. That’s the long-term average. You can see this in the graph from Flight International, which we have as figure 1.1. Now, 2012 was an exceptional year. It has been dubbed “the safest year yet” because the rate dropped to 1 per 2.3 million flights. That’s nearly half the normal rate. But here’s the important caveat: experts, at the time of printing, were generally of the opinion that the rate would return to approximately the norm of 1 per 1.2 million flights in future years. So 2012 was a statistical outlier, not a new normal. It’s also of note that in 2012, almost all of the accidents were precipitated by pilot misjudgment or mismanagement. That’s a key point — even in the safest year, the human element was still the dominant factor. Now, let’s move to figure 1.2. The sad fact is that accidents are still occurring, and this is in spite of enormous technical advances. Let me list those advances for you, because they show just how much technology has improved: - Aircrew training and selection - Aircraft manufacture and design - Weather tracking and prediction - Mechanical reliability - Systems monitoring equipment - Communications - Accuracy and range of navigational equipment - Cockpit and cabin layout - Safety equipment - Air Traffic Control expertise and capabilities - Control and weather radar equipment - Airfield lighting and facilities Even with all those technical successes, and the overall standards of safety that have been achieved, the art and science of advanced aeronautics in all types of flying conditions are not yet fully perfected. Nor has the complex relationship between technological progress on the one hand, and human frailty on the other, been fully resolved. In aviation, perhaps more than in other fields of human endeavour, mankind remains as much a victim of himself as of the elements around him. That brings us to the causes of accidents. Approximately 73% of all accidents are caused by human factors. Historically, this figure has not changed since the 1950s. So for over sixty years, roughly three out of every four accidents have been down to human error, not mechanical failure or weather. And the most common general form of accident is CFIT — Controlled Flight into Terrain. That’s when an airworthy aircraft, under the control of the crew, is flown unintentionally into terrain, water, or an obstacle, with no prior awareness of the collision. It remains the leading type of accident. So here’s the takeaway: despite all the technical progress, the human element is still the biggest factor in accidents, and it has been for decades. That’s why this subject — human performance and limitations — is so critical to your training.