Alright, let's talk about decision making in the cockpit — Page 297, Lesson 492

Alright, let's talk about decision making in the cockpit. We've already covered that the human mind is incredibly capable—it can be creative, innovative, and handle novel situations in ways that machines currently cannot. And we've set the foundation: the commander of the aircraft is ultimately responsible for every decision made in the cockpit. That's a heavy weight, so we need a structured way to carry it. Let me walk you through the mechanics of decision making. The book expands on a concept from British Airways called DODAR, which you'll find on page 331. What I'm going to give you now is a more detailed, step-by-step framework that builds on that idea. The process is laid out in a table with two columns: "Steps" and "Key Points." Let's go through each step in order. Step 1: Diagnose and Define the objective. The key point here is to identify the most important or urgent problem. You don't try to solve everything at once. You specify the aim or objective—what exactly are you trying to achieve? And you assess the time available. How much time do you have before this decision becomes irrelevant or dangerous? Step 2: Collect information. You gather information from every available source. That means radar pictures, weather forecasts, visual topographical features, fuel consumption, engine status, airport capabilities—everything. Crucially, you also obtain inputs from other members of the crew. You are not a lone operator; the whole crew is a resource. Step 3: Risk assessment. You assess the risk. This is a dedicated step, not something you do in passing. You look at the options and ask: what are the hazards, and how severe are they? Step 4: Develop options. You think through every option to its logical conclusion. Don't just list possibilities—play them out in your mind. What happens if you divert? What happens if you hold? What happens if you continue? Follow each thread to the end. Step 5: Evaluate options. You weigh and compare the options. This is where you put them side by side, looking at pros, cons, risks, and benefits. Step 6: Decide. You select the best option and decide. This is the moment of commitment. Step 7: Assign tasks. You assign tasks to the whole crew. The decision isn't just yours to execute; you delegate. "You handle the radios, you set up the approach, I'll fly." Step 8: Implement decision. You supervise and monitor the execution of the decision. You don't just say it and forget it. You watch to make sure it's being carried out correctly. Step 9: Consequences. You monitor and evaluate the consequences. Did the decision work? Is the situation improving or getting worse? Step 10: Review and Feedback. You review whether the situation remains the same and that the decision is still valid. If conditions change, the decision might no longer be the right one. And then you return to step 1. It's a loop, not a one-time event. Now, let's dig deeper into that first step: Diagnosis and Definition of the Objective, specifically the part about Time Assessment. The value of the decision largely depends on how deeply the situation is understood. An accurate assessment often requires perception of a large number of cues—those radar pictures, weather forecasts, visual topographical features, fuel consumption, engine status, airport capabilities, and so forth. These cues, in turn, must be interpreted against a knowledge base in your long-term memory to accurately construct a mental model and diagnosis of the real situation. So, it's not just about seeing the data. It's about understanding what that data means, based on your training and experience. You build a picture in your mind—a mental model—of what is actually happening. That diagnosis is the foundation for everything that follows. If you misdiagnose the problem, the best decision-making process in the world will lead you to the wrong answer.